Every once in a while, a movie comes along and makes box office analysts start talking like sports commentators mid-Super Bowl. This is one of those weekends. Destin Daniel Cretton’s “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” spent its opening frame beating up Avengers: Endgame’s decade-old records for sport, and now the entire industry is holding its breath for round two.
Welcome to ScreenTrak’s official Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Prediction, where we sift through every tracking number, trade estimate, and mildly unhinged industry tweet so you don’t have to.
How We Got Here: A Very Quick, Very Dramatic Recap
Let’s set the scene. “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” opened domestically to a jaw-dropping $360.1 million, edging out Endgame’s $357.1 million to become the biggest domestic opening weekend ever, according to Gold Derby.
Globally, Spider-Man’s latest outing debuted with $927 million — the second-best global opening of all time, trailing only Endgame’s $1.2 billion, per Variety. It hit $1 billion worldwide in six days, the second-fastest film ever to do so, and by Wednesday of its second week it had already dethroned “Toy Story 5” as 2026’s highest-grossing film, according to Variety’s second-weekend report.
In short: this Spider-Man outing isn’t just performing well, it’s performing like it personally has something to prove to the concept of box office records.
So naturally, the only reasonable next step for the entire film industry was to spend all week obsessively speculating about Spider-Man’s second weekend, which brings us to the actual point of this article.
The Numbers Everyone’s Throwing Around
Here’s where the tracking gets genuinely fun, because nobody quite agrees, and every trade publication is basically running its own fantasy football league for box office dollars.
- Deadline’s early call: $135–140 million domestic, per Forbes’ recap of Deadline’s Friday estimate, a number that already accounted for the film’s new IMAX rollout.
- Deadline’s updated call: Once Friday actuals came in at $43 million, Deadline bumped that to $144 million for the full three days, according to ComicBookMovie’s report, which would land it as the third-best second weekend ever, just behind Endgame and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.”
- The Hollywood Reporter’s estimate: $143 million for the weekend, pushing the domestic total to roughly $653 million, per THR — which would give it the highest 10-day domestic total in box office history.
- Variety’s Friday-actuals writeup: $43 million on Friday alone, tracking toward $143 million for the frame and a $653 million running domestic total, matching THR almost dollar for dollar, according to Variety.
- Gold Derby’s panel prediction: A flat $150 million, which would put “Brand New Day” within arm’s reach of “The Force Awakens” all-time second-weekend record of $149.2 million, according to Gold Derby.
- JoBlo’s more bullish read: Also landing on roughly $150 million, with an outside shot at $160 million, which JoBlo notes would push the domestic total past $600 million by Sunday night regardless of which number hits, per JoBlo’s report.
So the range on the table is roughly $135 million on the conservative end and $160 million on the wildly optimistic end, which is a $25 million spread that would make most studios’ entire opening weekends. That’s the kind of margin of error only a genuine box office phenomenon can generate.
Why Is Everyone So Confident This Thing Barely Drops?
A few reasons keep showing up across every outlet’s reporting, and they’re worth breaking down before we make our own Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Prediction.
First, word of mouth for this Spider-Man outing is borderline unheard-of for a modern blockbuster — Gold Derby notes the film is sitting at a 98% Popcornmeter score on Rotten Tomatoes with a 4.1 average on Letterboxd, numbers that typically translate into unusually strong holds rather than the usual superhero-movie cliff-dive.
Second, there’s essentially zero direct competition in front of Spider-Man; new wide releases like “Super Troopers 3,” “One Night Only,” and “Ice Cream Man” are all opening into single-digit-million territory, according to Variety, meaning Spidey isn’t fighting anyone for screens or eyeballs. Third — and this is the detail that made us laugh — the film is only just now expanding into IMAX for its second weekend, per ComicBookMovie, which is the box office equivalent of a marathon runner who’s already lapped the field deciding to also put on rocket boots for lap two.
And Internationally? Oh, It’s Getting Silly Out There
While domestic trackers argue over which number rounds nicer, the international rollout has been its own spectacle. China alone delivered a $121 million five-day opening — the biggest Hollywood debut in the country since “Avengers: Endgame,” according to The Hollywood Reporter — and local trackers Maoyan and Dengta are now projecting full China run totals somewhere between $255 million and $265 million.
The UK opened at $49 million (third-biggest opening ever there), Mexico hit $38.3 million, and India logged the biggest opening ever for a Hollywood film at $31.8 million, all according to Screen Daily’s global breakdown. Add it all up and the film had already crossed $1.35 billion worldwide before its second domestic weekend even started, per ComicBookMovie, with plenty of analysts now openly discussing a run at $2 billion.
So, What Does ScreenTrak Actually Think Happens?
Alright, moment of truth. After wading through every trade estimate on the board, here’s ScreenTrak’s own Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Prediction for how this weekend ultimately lands.
Domestically, we’re siding closer to the higher end of the pack rather than Deadline’s original conservative read.
With Friday already locked at $43 million, the film’s near-perfect audience scores, its total lack of competition, and a fresh IMAX bump all working in its favor, we think Brand New Day closes out its second domestic weekend right around $148–152 million — landing it just shy of “The Force Awakens” all-time second-weekend crown, but comfortably ahead of “Endgame.” That would push its 10-day domestic cume to roughly $658 million, making it the fastest film in history to that milestone.
Internationally, given China’s blistering pace and the film’s continued strength across UK, Mexico, and India, we expect the international side to add somewhere in the $310–330 million range for the weekend, pushing the worldwide cume to somewhere between $1.72 billion and $1.78 billion by Sunday night.
Full-blown $2 billion for Spider-Man feels inevitable within the next few weeks rather than this weekend specifically — but don’t be shocked if it gets there before Labor Day.
Bottom line: every Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Prediction floating around right now agrees on one thing — this is one of the biggest sophomore weekends in box office history, full stop, and the only real debate left is whether Tom Holland’s Spidey finishes as the second-best or third-best second weekend ever.
Given how this movie has spent two weeks casually breaking records like it’s stretching before a workout, we wouldn’t bet against him going for the top spot outright.
The Real Winner Here
Somewhere, an Avengers: Endgame die-hard is watching their beloved record chart slowly get dismantled by a guy in red-and-blue spandex, and there’s nothing they can do about it except refresh Box Office Mojo every twenty minutes like the rest of us.
But that is, in fact, so many of us, and part of our fandom surely loves new benchmarks being set in this ever evolving media landscape.
Keep coming back to ScreenTrak for the latest in the world of entertainment!
Sources referenced: Gold Derby · Variety — Global Debut · Variety — Second Weekend · Forbes · ComicBookMovie — Amazing Second Weekend · ComicBookMovie — IMAX Boost · The Hollywood Reporter — Second Weekend · The Hollywood Reporter — China · JoBlo · Screen Daily
